Global Logistics Lens - July
- Jul 1
- 9 min read
July opens with South African importers and exporters facing disruption on multiple fronts. International attention has turned to Washington, where the US Trade Representative will hold public hearings on a proposed additional tariff on South African goods, while the existing 10% reciprocal tariff remains under review. Locally, heightened caution ahead of the nationwide protest action led many businesses to close and transporters to temporarily withdraw trucks from the road, resulting in quieter freight activity across key logistics corridors. Adding further pressure, major ocean carriers have introduced peak season surcharges on key trade lanes, increasing landed freight costs for importers. On a more positive note, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) has suspended implementation of the proposed PVoC program pending further consultation, providing temporary relief for importers sourcing goods from China.
The common thread across these developments is uncertainty but not instability. Whether driven by trade policy, operational disruption or carrier pricing, July reinforces the importance of proactive planning, flexible supply chains and allowing sufficient time for cargo clearance and delivery. While disruption remains a constant, global supply chains are significantly more resilient than in previous years. Shipping capacity remains available, freight markets are relatively stable by historical standards, and businesses that plan ahead continue to navigate changing market conditions successfully.
Key Highlights:
Businesses and transporters adopted a risk-based approach during the nationwide protest action, resulting in reduced freight movements despite largely peaceful demonstrations.
SABS has paused implementation of the proposed PVoC program pending further consultation, providing welcome relief for importers sourcing from China.
Durban continues one of the world's strongest port recoveries, although its progress is now being tested by landside access and transport disruptions.
Coega has become the South African terminal to watch, with average vessel delays increasing to around four days while Durban and Cape Town remain relatively stable.
Ocean carriers have introduced Peak Season Surcharges on Far East–Southern Africa trade lanes, increasing freight costs for importers.
US trade policy remains uncertain as South Africa's reciprocal tariff review and proposed new tariff hearings approach.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased pressure on fuel markets, although Red Sea shipping disruptions continue.
Global container freight rates have risen again as an early Transpacific peak season collides with long-term vessel oversupply.
This month's edition explores the developments shaping South African trade and what importers and exporters should be watching as the second half of 2026 begins.
South African Trade
South Africa's logistics landscape continues to improve, with Durban maintaining stronger port performance and global shipping services remaining stable despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, operational resilience extends beyond the terminal gates. Precautionary business closures and reduced trucking activity ahead of the nationwide protest action on 30 June temporarily slowed freight movements, highlighting how anticipated disruption alone can affect supply chain performance even when demonstrations remain largely peaceful.
Port Operations:
Durban continues to show strong operational improvement, with vessel delays significantly reduced following equipment upgrades, operational reforms and the start of ICTSI’s 25-year concession at Pier 2 (DGT). Coega remains a consistent performer but has experienced a slight rise in delays and less predictable berthing windows as volumes increase. Cape Town continues to face seasonal weather disruption, although ongoing infrastructure investment is expected to improve long-term resilience and peak-season handling. As July progresses, importers and exporters should continue building flexibility into collection and delivery planning, particularly for cargo moving through Durban.
South African Port Performance Snapshot: June/July
Port | Status | Current Conditions | Outlook |
Durban (Pier 1 & general cargo) | 🟢 Improving | Vessel backlog reduced significantly; berth utilisation up sharply year-on-year | Momentum continues, but landside road access remains a constraint |
Durban Gateway Terminal (Pier 2, ICTSI) | 🟢 Stabilising | Early concession performance positive; booking system still creating truck collection delays | Strong structural improvement with ongoing operational refinement |
Coega (Ngqura) | 🟡 Moderate Pressure | Average delays around four days; less predictable berthing windows | Requires close monitoring in July as volatility persists |
Cape Town | 🟠 Weather Watch | Winter wind continues to impact crane productivity | Investment underway to support long-term resilience |
What this means: Build additional lead time for Coega shipments and confirm berthing windows with forwarders. In Durban, landside access and transport disruptions remain a greater risk than terminal performance. In Cape Town, routing should be checked carefully as some cargo may be transhipped via Durban, extending transit times.
Freight Rates
Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) have added another cost layer for South African importers. Maersk and CMA CGM have introduced surcharges ranging from US$250 to US$550 per container on Far East–Southern Africa trade lanes. While carriers cite seasonal demand and network pressure, local conditions do not reflect a traditional peak season, making the timing particularly challenging for importers already managing elevated logistics costs. Where possible, shipment timing should be reviewed and cargo consolidation considered to reduce exposure to surcharges.
Inland Logistics & Rail:
Although lower diesel prices have provided some relief, inland logistics remain vulnerable to disruption. Recent protest action highlighted how quickly freight flows can slow when transporters adopt precautionary measures. Ongoing concerns around cargo theft, road security and rail reliability continue to affect planning. A recent derailment on the North Corridor briefly disrupted coal exports before services were restored, reflecting both improving response times and continued fragility in key rail corridors. Inland transport disruptions continue to create greater delays than port operations in many cases.
Compliance & Customs
The South African Bureau of Standards (SABS) has suspended implementation of the proposed Pre-Export Verification of Conformity (PVoC) program pending further consultation with the dtic. The program which was expected to become mandatory for selected imports from China in September, has been paused due to industry concerns around readiness and certification processes. Importers should view this as a temporary pause and continue engaging suppliers on compliance requirements ahead of any future implementation.
Beyond PVoC, customs compliance remains active. During May and June, SARS implemented tariff amendments including increased duties and safeguard measures on selected steel products, revised rebate provisions, and higher anti-dumping duties on certain PET imports from China. These changes reinforce the importance of verifying tariff classifications and duties before shipment.
Airfreight: Capacity stability improving, pricing remains elevated
For South African importers and exporters, global market tightness is amplified by reliance on transit routing through the Middle East and Europe. South Africa remains a secondary air freight market, meaning capacity shifts in major global corridors are often felt indirectly through reduced uplift reliability and constrained connecting capacity into Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban. Asia-origin cargo into South Africa remains the most sensitive segment, as demand pressures in Asia and congestion at key transit hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Frankfurt, translate into rolled bookings, longer transit times, and higher all-in landed costs. Europe–South Africa flows remain comparatively more stable due to consistent passenger belly capacity, while Middle East connections continue to act as the primary routing buffer when other lanes tighten.
Global Trade
If June was defined by operational instability, July shifts focus toward policy-driven volatility layered on top of structural capacity constraints. Carriers are navigating one of the earliest and most aggressive transpacific peak seasons in recent years, driven by front-loading ahead of potential US tariff action. This surge is unfolding against a structurally oversupplied fleet, creating a market prone to short-term spikes despite persistent medium-term rate pressure. Procurement strategy is increasingly defined by timing as much as routing.
Global Air Cargo: Capacity remains the key constraint
The global air freight market remains stable on the surface but structurally tight underneath, with capacity rather than demand continuing to drive pricing and reliability. The most challenged corridors remain Asia–Europe and Asia–US Transpacific routes, where earlier peak-season cargo pull-forward, combined with limited capacity, is tightening space and increasing rollover risk. In contrast, intra-Asia and selected Middle East–Europe flows are relatively more balanced, offering improved schedule reliability and more predictable pricing behaviour. Volatility remains a defining feature of the market, with short-term space availability often shifting faster than published rate levels.
Global Port & Inland Performance
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire has eased one of the most acute geopolitical risks, but conditions remain fragile. Bunker fuel prices remain elevated across key refuelling hubs, while global emergency fuel reserves sit at roughly four weeks of supply. The Red Sea and Suez situation remains unresolved. Most carriers continue routing via the Cape of Good Hope, with October Golden Week seen as the earliest realistic window for a potential return to Suez transits. Any rapid shift would temporarily release vessel capacity but could trigger congestion across European hubs.
In North America, carriers have reinstated cargo weight restrictions on Panama Canal transits to the US East and Gulf Coasts due to draft limitations. In Asia, export hubs remain operationally efficient but increasingly congested pre-departure due to tariff-driven front-loading.
Global Port Performance Snapshot (June/July 2026)
Region | Status | Current Conditions |
Middle East (Strait of Hormuz & Gulf) | 🟡 Improving, still fragile | Strait reopened after ceasefire, easing immediate risk; however fuel costs and insurance premiums remain elevated, with limited global fuel buffer capacity. |
North Europe (Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg) | 🔴 Congested | Persistent vessel bunching and schedule disruption; labour and operational pressures increasing risk of multi-week backlog events. |
South East Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Singapore) | 🟠 Booking pressure | Early peak-season front-loading tightening space availability, particularly out of Ho Chi Minh City and Haiphong. |
North America (East & Gulf Coast) | 🟡 Capacity-constrained | Panama Canal draft restrictions have reintroduced cargo weight limits; carriers remain cautious on additional capacity deployment. |
China (Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao) | 🟢 Stable, but loading pressure building | Export performance remains efficient, but rising outbound volumes ahead of tariff deadlines are increasing pre-sailing congestion. |
Global Freight Rates
Global container spot rates rose again in late June, with the Drewry World Container Index up 5%, driven mainly by Transpacific strength. This follows General Rate Increases on 1 June and Peak Season Surcharges of up to US$2,000 per FEU across selected lanes. Capacity remains tightest on US East and Gulf Coast services, where China and Vietnam-origin sailings are frequently fully booked weeks in advance.
Despite near-term tightening, the broader structural picture is unchanged: the global fleet remains materially oversupplied following more than 7 million TEU of newbuild deliveries between 2024 and 2026. Most forecasts still point to medium-term rate softening, but the adjustment path remains volatile. Through Q3, moderate upward pressure of 10–20% on selected lanes is still plausible as peak season plays out. Q4 direction will hinge on two key variables: Red Sea normalisation and US tariff and AGOA policy outcomes, either of which could shift rates by 20–30% within weeks. For South African shippers, the key takeaway is that current pricing should not be assumed to hold in either direction through the second half of the year.
Market Insights
Freight rates are being managed, not just driven by demand
Current freight rates are not being driven by a shortage of vessels. The global container fleet remains structurally oversupplied, with new capacity continuing to enter the market. Instead, carriers are supporting rates through blank sailings, slower vessel speeds and network adjustments. This means pricing is being influenced as much by carrier strategy as by supply and demand, allowing rates to change quickly as market conditions evolve.
Reliability is becoming as important as price
Freight rates tell only part of the story. Schedule reliability remains inconsistent across many trade lanes, with delays and missed sailings continuing to affect global supply chains. For importers and exporters, the cheapest freight option is not always the most cost-effective if unreliable transit times lead to stock shortages, production delays or increased inventory costs. Service reliability should be considered alongside price when planning shipments.
Supply chain resilience requires flexibility
Using multiple shipping lines does not always guarantee supply chain diversification, as many global carriers operate within the same alliances and share vessels and service networks. Businesses should understand the routing options available through their freight forwarder and avoid relying too heavily on a single network where possible. In today's market, flexibility is becoming one of the most valuable risk management tools. Booking earlier, allowing additional lead time for critical shipments, and maintaining flexibility in routing or procurement strategies can help businesses respond more effectively to changing market conditions and reduce overall supply chain risk.
SCT Logistics Intelligence View
Across the first half of 2026, supply chain visibility has shifted from a support function to a core operational requirement. In a market defined by overlapping volatility across policy, capacity, and routing constraints, early awareness of disruption is now critical to maintaining control. Through the Scout Portal, SCT customers are gaining earlier visibility of shipment milestones, delays, and risk indicators across their supply chains. This enables faster decisions on cargo routing and customer communication. The most effective businesses are not reacting to isolated events such as surcharges or tariff changes, but managing the downstream impact before it escalates. Scout supports this by highlighting at-risk cargo earlier and improving decision timing, reducing the likelihood of disruptions becoming customer-facing issues.
Ready to see what others miss? Discover Scout by contacting SCT Supply Chain Solutions today.
Freight News
The following developments were among the most significant stories influencing global freight, supply chain performance and trade flows during June:
🚨 Market Disruptors | |
🌍 Regional & Trade Developments | |
Sources & References
Seatrade Maritime / Loadstar / Freight News / GoComet / Maersk / Openpr / Transnet / WeFreight / MSC / AfricaPorts / Container Statistics+News / Flexport / BusinessTech/ SACO / Hellenic Shipping / Worldcargonews/ Maritime Executive / GCaptain/ Linerlytica / Sea Intelligence / Sea Advantage / Freight Waves / Xeneta / Drewry / Engineering news / African Mining / iOL / Hapag Lloyd / Reuters / Freshplaza / AllAfrica / World Bank Container Port Performance Index.