Global Logistics Lens - June
- Jun 4
- 8 min read
June enters the market with global supply chains operating in a far more fragile and expensive environment than many anticipated earlier this year. While freight rates have stabilised from extreme volatility, the real challenge facing importers and exporters is no longer securing capacity, but managing operational reliability and rising end-to-end logistics costs. Ongoing geopolitical disruptions, constrained airfreight capacity and rising inland logistics costs continue to place pressure on global trade flows. South Africa is also playing an increasingly strategic role within global shipping networks as carriers maintain Cape routing structures and reposition capacity around Southern Africa. While this creates opportunity for local trade, it is also adding pressure to ports, transport infrastructure and overall supply chain costs. For importers and exporters, success in the current market is no longer driven purely by securing the lowest freight rate, but increasingly by procurement timing and supply chain resilience.
Key Highlights:
South African ports are seeing elevated vessel volumes with the Cape routing still structurally elevated
Inland logistics costs rising due to fuel, road freight pressure and terminal surcharges
Carrier schedule reliability has improved marginally, however blank sailings and service changes persist
Airfreight capacity remains constrained across Europe, Middle East and Asia trade lanes
China zero-tariff framework continues to support South African export competitiveness
US tariff policy uncertainty and AGOA discussions remain a key risk for exporters
Global importers are prioritising routing stability over lowest cost freight decisions
South African Trade
South Africa’s role in global shipping networks continues to strengthen as Cape routing drives sustained vessel calls into the region and carriers maintain revised service structures across disrupted global trade lanes. This shift is improving connectivity into Southern Africa but also increasing operational pressure across key ports and inland logistics systems. While operational performance has stabilised compared to previous years, port congestion, schedule variability and landside cost volatility remain ongoing challenges.
Port Operations:
South African port performance remains mixed. Durban continues to face congestion-related challenges, while Cape Town operations have been impacted by adverse weather and windbound conditions affecting vessel and terminal productivity. Coega remains the strongest-performing container terminal nationally; however, increased cargo volumes and congestion across surrounding landside logistics networks are beginning to place pressure on transport flows and container bookings. As shipping lines continue to utilise Southern African routing options, the ability of inland transport networks to support port operations will become increasingly important in sustaining overall supply chain efficiency.
South African Port Performance Snapshot: May/June
Port | Status | Current Conditions | Outlook |
Cape Town | 🟠 Weather Impacted | Strong winds have resulted in frequent crane stoppages and vessel delays, with the port currently operating on standby during windbound periods. Export stack operations and vessel schedules remain vulnerable to weather disruptions. | Delays expected to continue until weather conditions improve. Importers and exporters should anticipate schedule changes and potential cut-off adjustments. |
Coega (Ngqura) | 🟢Stable | Good overall throughput with some congestion. Vessel scheduling has remained consistent, supporting steady import and export flows. Berth and yard capacity remain well managed. | Expected to remain one of South Africa's most stable container terminals, providing important support for Eastern Cape and local transhipments. |
Durban Port | 🔴Congested | Congestion remains evident across the port terminals, with vessel turnaround times under pressure during peak periods. Yard density, equipment constraints and vessel bunching continue to impact operational fluidity. | Congestion risk remains elevated, particularly during periods of high vessel arrivals. Additional planning time should be built into supply chain schedules. |
Durban Gateway Terminal (DCT) | 🟠 Under Pressure | Terminal operations remain functional but continue to experience congestion-related challenges. Equipment availability, yard utilisation and gate efficiency are impacting throughput during peak vessel windows. | Performance remains dependent on vessel arrival patterns and inland operations, with intermittent delays likely to continue. |
Freight Rates
One of the biggest shifts currently impacting importers is not necessarily ocean freight itself, but the accumulation of secondary logistics costs across the supply chain. Fuel-linked surcharges, revised terminal charges, road freight inflation and container-related costs are now materially affecting landed pricing models. Many importers who budgeted for softer freight markets in 2026 are instead finding that inland and operational costs are offsetting much of the benefit from stabilising sea freight rates.
Inland Logistics & Rail:
South Africa’s rail reform process remains ongoing, but road freight continues to dominate inland container movement, maintaining pressure on trucking capacity and driving sustained increases in inland transport costs, particularly amid rising diesel prices.
Cross-border movements into SADC markets remain challenging, with border delays and escalating operating costs continuing across key regional corridors. Although export volumes into neighbouring African markets are increasing, capacity constraints and inconsistent transit times continue to impact reliability. A further constraint is the limited availability of SADC certificates within South African Customs processes, which is adding administrative pressure for exporters and contributing to clearance delays in some cases. As a result, transport planning and documentation readiness have become critical for exporters, as variability across inland and cross-border routes remains high.
Airfreight: Capacity stability improving, pricing remains elevated
Airfreight markets remain stable in demand but tight in capacity, with global pricing still elevated across key trade lanes into and out of Africa. Ongoing disruptions in Middle East airspace, combined with airline rerouting and reduced hub capacity, continue to constrain available space on long-haul routes. This is keeping spot availability limited and maintaining upward pressure on rates despite some short-term stabilisation. For South African importers and exporters, the market remains highly sensitive to timing, with space shortages still common on urgent shipments such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and perishables. Fuel costs and network adjustments by global carriers are also contributing to inconsistent pricing and tighter allocation control across major airlines serving Africa
Global Trade
One of the key shifts in global logistics in 2026 is that volatility is now driven as much by operational instability as by freight rates. Shipping lines continue to manage capacity through blank sailings, service restructuring and alliance changes, while schedule reliability remains inconsistent across major trade lanes, making cargo planning more difficult even in stable pricing conditions.
The gap between cost and reliability is widening. Lower-cost routing options increasingly carry higher risk, including transshipment delays, rolled cargo and equipment shortages, which is shifting focus toward more stable carriers and routing choices. For importers, this is particularly critical given longer transit times and limited flexibility once cargo is in motion, making upfront planning and routing decisions essential to supply chain performance.
Global Air Cargo: Adjusting to structural change
A key feature of the current market is the continued imbalance between available airline capacity and demand on major trade lanes, particularly Asia–Europe and Asia–Africa. While rates have eased from earlier disruption peaks, airlines are still managing space tightly and maintaining cautious capacity growth due to ongoing network uncertainty and rerouting pressures. Airfreight remains a premium, timing-driven market where space availability and carrier allocation now have a greater impact on shipment success than pricing alone.
Global Port & Inland Performance
Global port performance remains uneven, with the most significant pressure currently concentrated in North Europe and India. European gateway ports continue to experience congestion and schedule disruption, affecting both direct imports and transshipment cargo moving into Africa. Importers relying on European hubs should continue to expect transit time variability and potential delays through Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg.
A key development for South African traders is the situation at Nhava Sheva. While port authorities maintain that terminal operations are functioning normally, freight stakeholders continue to report landside congestion, driver shortages, gate delays and operational challenges affecting container movement. Recent transport industry actions have further highlighted the vulnerability of cargo flows through India's largest container gateway.
In contrast, major Asian export hubs such as Singapore and the primary Chinese container ports remain largely stable. However, ongoing alliance restructuring, blank sailings and network adjustments continue to create schedule volatility, even where port congestion itself is limited.
Global Port Performance Snapshot (May–June 2026)
Region | Status | Current Conditions |
North Europe (Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg) | 🔴 Congested | Vessel bunching, schedule disruptions and capacity pressure continue to impact major North European gateways, resulting in longer transit variability and transshipment delays. |
India (Nhava Sheva / JNPA) | 🟠 Under Pressure | Terminal operations remain functional, however landside congestion, driver shortages, gate delays and transport disruptions have impacted container evacuation and export planning. Recent transporter action has added further uncertainty. |
Middle East (Jebel Ali & Regional Gateways) | 🟠 Under Pressure | Ongoing geopolitical instability continues to affect routing decisions, feeder networks and supply chain predictability across the region. |
South East Asia (Singapore & Port Klang) | 🟡 Moderate Pressure | Core port operations remain stable, although schedule volatility and transshipment fluctuations continue as carriers adjust networks and vessel rotations. |
North America (East & Gulf Coast Ports) | 🟢 Stable | Port operations remain generally stable, although inland rail and terminal bottlenecks continue to impact selected cargo flows. |
China (Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao) | 🟢 Stable | Major export gateways continue to operate efficiently with no widespread congestion reported, supporting consistent export flow into global markets. |
Global Freight Rates
Freight rates remained relatively stable during May; however, carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments, limiting downward pressure despite softer demand in some markets. Pressure remains most evident on Europe, India and Middle East trade lanes, where landside disruptions and network changes continue to impact schedules and equipment availability.
Looking ahead, freight pricing may increasingly be influenced by carrier capacity management rather than demand growth, reducing the likelihood of significant rate declines. While major rate increases have not materialised, current pricing levels should not be assumed to remain unchanged through the second half of the year. For many, the greater challenge lies in total landed cost rather than ocean freight itself. Emergency fuel surcharges, terminal handling and road freight inflation are often having a greater impact on supply chain spend than the freight rate alone.
SCT Logistics Intelligence View
One of the most significant developments we have observed during the first half of 2026 is the increasing importance of supply chain visibility and proactive exception management. Through the rollout of SCOUT, our customers are gaining earlier visibility of shipment milestones, delays and operational risks across their supply chains. This has enabled customers to make faster decisions around cargo prioritisation, customer communication and inventory planning.
In an environment where schedule reliability remains inconsistent and delays are often caused outside of the port itself, visibility has become one of the most valuable tools available to importers and exporters. The businesses navigating current market conditions most successfully are not necessarily those paying the lowest freight rates, but those making the fastest and most informed decisions when disruptions occur. As supply chains become more complex, access to real-time information is increasingly becoming as valuable as the movement of cargo itself. The ability to identify a disruption before it becomes a customer problem is increasingly proving to be a competitive advantage.
The June market continues to reinforce a structural shift taking place across global logistics. Competitive advantage is increasingly being determined by visibility, planning agility and supply chain resilience rather than freight procurement alone. Organisations' that can identify disruptions early, adjust routing strategies quickly and maintain flexibility within their supply chains will be best positioned to manage cost and service performance through the remainder of 2026.
Freight News
The following developments were among the most significant stories influencing global freight, supply chain performance and trade flows during May:
🚨 Market Disruptors | |
📈 Freight Market Trends | |
⏳ Peak Season Uncertainty Grows as Shippers Front-Load Inventory and freight demand diverges |
Sources & References
Seatrade Maritime / Loadstar / Freight News / GoComet / Maersk / Openpr / Transnet / WeFreight / MSC / AfricaPorts / Container Statistics+News / Flexport / BusinessTech/ SACO / Hellenic Shipping / Worldcargonews/ Maritime Executive / GCaptain/ Linerlytica / Sea Intelligence / Splash247 / Freight Waves / Xeneta / Drewry / Engineering news / African Mining / iOL / Hapag Lloyd / Reuters / Freshplaza