Global Logistics Lens - May
- May 5
- 9 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
The month of May reflects a shift from disruption to a more complex and controlled global logistics environment. While supply chains are gradually stabilising, volatility remains due to continued vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and rising fuel costs. Network reliability is improving, but schedule disruption, capacity imbalances, and cost pressures continue to impact trade flows. For South African importers and exporters, this means a stronger focus on planning and real-time visibility of your supply chain.
Key Highlights:
China zero-tariff policy for SA exports now live - a game changer.
Transnet–ICTSI Durban Pier 2 partnership formalised. (R11bn investment, capacity expansion underway).
US tariff on SA goods at 10% (Section 122) - set to expire 24 July 2026.
Red Sea partially reopened with limited Suez transit under escort.
Global container overcapacity continues, keeping freight rates below peak cycle levels but volatile week to week.
Diesel price increases driving higher logistics costs.
Global schedule reliability at 62.2% in March with Hapag Lloyd and Maersk leading.
South African Trade
South Africa’s trade environment remains active across sea, air, and land corridors. Ports continue to handle high vessel volumes via the Cape of Good Hope routing, while air cargo remains steady but costly due to fuel and capacity constraints. Inland logistics and rail remain under pressure, with road freight continuing to absorb excess demand. Operational improvements are supporting gradual stability, but infrastructure constraints, congestion, and cost pressures persist across the supply chain.
Port Operations:
April port performance showed gradual improvement, though conditions remain uneven across terminals. Below, we expand on the latest field challenges across our key ports:
Cape Town: Port operations have been heavily impacted by wind disruptions and high fruit season volumes, placing pressure on reefer capacity. New RTGs are now operational, helping improve reefer stack management. Close monitoring is required as slot availability can change within 24 hours.
Coega: Most reliable eastern terminal, with generally stable performance through April. Some pressure from seasonal reefer volumes has led to moderate delays, but operations are holding steady.
Durban: Port operations have improved, with around 12 vessels at anchorage in late April. Road congestion remains high due to roadworks and heavy truck volumes, while certain terminals are still congested with limited booking slots.
Durban Pier 2 (DCT2) - On 17 April 2026, final approvals were given for the Transnet–ICTSI partnership. The joint venture, Newco, has been running since 1 January and brings in ICTSI’s global port expertise. With a 25-year deal (Transnet 51%, ICTSI 49%) and an R11 billion investment, the focus is on increasing capacity, improving crane performance, and cutting vessel waiting times. Durban’s DCT2, which handles most of the port’s cargo, is central to these improvements.
Inland Logistics & Rail:
Rail recovery remains slow, with freight volumes still below capacity and reform implementation lagging. Early private-sector participation and Transnet collaboration are improving efficiency, but progress remains slow. Road freight continues to absorb excess demand, keeping logistics costs elevated. Overall, the system is still constrained, with recovery dependent on faster reform and infrastructure upgrades.
Logistics costs are also under renewed pressure from fuel price increases. April diesel hikes have already raised road freight and cross-border transport costs, while fuel surcharges remain highly volatile. A further increase expected in May is likely to add another round of cost pressure across local container cartage and regional trucking. The broader impact is feeding into inflation, with May fuel hikes expected to add about 0.6% to monthly CPI, potentially lifting it to around 4.2%. Importers are increasingly required to plan across scenarios, as continued fuel volatility add uncertainty to transport and landed costs.
China Zero-Tariff Policy: A Game-Changer for SA Exporters
The most significant trade development for South Africa in 2026 took effect on 1 May, China's zero-tariff policy now covers qualifying South African exports, running until April 2028. It positions China firmly as South Africa's most important growth market at a moment when the US relationship remains complicated.
US Tariff Landscape: Cautious Optimism After SCOTUS Ruling
South Africa's tariff relationship with the United States improved significantly in February when the US Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs 6-3, dropping SA's rate from 30% to 10% under Section 122. However, this tariff expires approximately 24 July 2026 and the Trump administration has signaled it will seek replacement authority. Exporters to consider tariff reimposition risk into all US-bound pricing and contracts beyond July.
Global Trade
Global trade remains dynamic, with shifting shipping routes, regulatory changes, and capacity constraints challenging supply chains. Carriers and shippers are being forced to adapt quickly, making real-time visibility and flexible planning essential to keeping goods moving efficiently.
Airline Capacity & Pricing
Global air cargo markets remain active but capacity is tight, especially on key routes through major hubs like Dubai, Frankfurt, and Hong Kong. Demand is strong for urgent and high-value goods such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and perishables, partly due to ongoing delays in sea freight. Air freight prices remain high and change frequently due to fuel costs, airline surcharges, and limited space on busy routes.
Global Port & Inland Performance
Global ports remain under pressure as ongoing vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope continues to extend transit times and strain global capacity. Major transshipment hubs in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are still experiencing congestion, with tighter container availability and slower vessel turnaround times. Delays are increasingly driven by schedule disruption and vessel bunching rather than volume alone, as carriers struggle to restore network reliability. This pattern has persisted into May and is expected to continue in the near term as global shipping schedules remain uneven and equipment positioning stays constrained.
The data below reflects average vessel waiting times, ports not shown are operating with minimal disruption.
Africa & Indian Ocean Islands
Mozambique (Beira/Maputo): Beira: 22 days due to weather disruption; Maputo: 2 days with wind gusts and rain
Tanzania (Dar es Salaam): 15-31 days. Consistent congestion and maintenance work underway
Kenya (Mombasa): 8-10 days. Equipment shortages and vessel bunching.
Nigeria (Lagos—Tincan / Apapa): 4–6 days at main terminals due to consistent congestion with operational shutdowns.
Ghana (Tema): 3-5 days. High yard utilisation and a result of volume
Ivory Coast (Abidjan): 7 days. Terminal and road congestion.
North America
USA (New York / New Jersey): 3 days at main terminals with minor inland constraints. Carrier schedule changes will impact exports to RSA
USA (Savannah): 3 days. Inland rail and trucking capacity fluctuations.
USA (Miami / Los Angeles / Long Beach): 2 days.
Canada: All ports remain operational with stable productivity. Rail constraints and weather delays ongoing
Latin America
Mexico (Altamira/Manzanillo): 2 days. minor delays persistent
Brazil (Santos / Paranagua): 5 days. high volumes of loading onto east bound vessels.
Europe & Mediterranean
Spain (Barcelona/Las Palmas/Algeciras/Istanbul) - 2-5 days, port congestion and high volumes
Germany (Hamburg): 4 days. Yard utilization at high levels
Belgium (Antwerp & Zeebrugge): 3 days. elevated to critical yard density reported across various terminals
France (Le Havre): 5 days, Port congestion
Italy (Genova/La Spezia) - 8 days. Carrier delays with vessels arriving late, resulting in late loading
Netherlands (Rotterdam): 4 days, high yard utilization
UK (London Gateway): 2 days. Fog disruptions, tide restrictions, late arrivals pushing berth plan.
UK (Grangemouth & Liverpool): Disrupted by high winds in March , monitor for recovery.
Middle East & Indian Subcontinent
India (Nhava Sheva/Chennai/Mundra) - 2-3 days, minor delays
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic.
UAE (Khor Fakkan): 3 days, functioning as critical alternative gateways
UAE - Jebel Ali - 22 days / Dubai - 12 Days / Abu Dhabi- 39 day. no longer primary gateways
Saudi Arabia (Jeddah & King Abdullah Port): 2-15 days, operational
Oman (Salalah) & Bahrain (Khalifa Bin Salman): operations linked to Saudi Arabia and servicing transhipments
Qatar / Kuwait / Iraq: Operations under elevated security protocols, inconsistent vessel calls and suspensions.
Israel - 5 days, minor port congestion
Lebanon - 6 days, port congestion continues
Asia & Oceania
China (Qingdao / Nansha): 3 days. Persistent congestion and vessel bunching. Overall efficiencies at main ports
Malaysia (Tanjung Pelepas): 2 days. Crane installation and maintenance underway
Korea (Busan): 2-4 days, vessel bunching and port congestion
Taiwan (Keelung): 6 days. high cargo volumes
Thailand (Bangkok): 3 days. vessel bunching
Singapore: 2 days, Most stressed port in Asia with constant 80-90% yard utilisation.
Global Freight Rates
The global container market continues to reflect a structurally softer environment than the peaks of 2021–2022. Fleet capacity has expanded by roughly 28% since 2021, while demand growth has lagged, keeping utilisation on key routes like Asia–Europe below the ~80% level where rate pressure typically increases. Freight rates remain volatile rather than uniformly low. Despite overcapacity, ongoing vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, port congestion, and schedule disruption have supported spot rates above pre-Red Sea crisis levels. In April, Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean rates saw short-term increases due to capacity tightening and delays, while some Asia–US lanes remained more stable but still elevated compared to historical norms. Into May, rate uncertainty persists. Carriers are actively managing capacity through blank sailings and service adjustments to prevent sharp declines, while fuel costs and surcharges continue to add upward pressure. For importers, this means rates can shift quickly week to week, with no clear downward trend yet established despite underlying overcapacity.
Red Sea: Cautious Reopening, Persistent Risk
The Red Sea corridor, carrying 15% of global trade and up to a third of all East-West container flows, is experiencing a fragmented reopening in 2026. In mid-February, the ME11 service (Hapag-Lloyd / Maersk) resumed Suez Canal transits under naval escort. CMA CGM has returned select services to Suez routing. As of April 2026, the canal is moving traffic again, but war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated and Houthi attack capability has not been eliminated.
Pre-crisis transit (Asia–Europe) | ~25 days via Suez Canal |
Current Cape route transit | 35–39 days, adding 10–14 days and $1,000–$2,000/FEU in extra cost |
War-risk insurance | Residual $1–$3/barrel premium above undisrupted baseline- the longest-persisting extra cost factor |
Maersk / Hapag-Lloyd | Stepwise return via Suez, ME11 fully resumed Feb 2026; more services under review |
CMA CGM | Returned select services to Suez but scaled back on others due to ongoing geopolitical risk concerns |
SA implication | Cape routing boosted Durban call volumes. A full Suez return would reduce this but lower freight surcharges on Asia-origin imports |
Key risk | Any fresh Houthi escalation could reverse carrier decisions overnight |
Carrier Comparison: Schedule Reliability for SA Importers
Not all shipping lines perform equally on routes to South Africa. In a market where rates are softening, the differentiator becomes reliability- a late vessel at Cape Town or Durban is not just a delay, it is detention, lost production time and missed sales windows. Global schedule reliability reached 62.2% in March 2026, meaning nearly four in ten vessels are still arriving late, with an average delay of 5.48 days when they miss their window.
Alliance / Carrier | Reliability | SA Importer Guidance |
Hapag-Lloyd (Gemini Alliance) | 72.3% ★Leader | Best schedule reliability in the market. Hub-and-spoke model means more transhipment legs - confirm your specific port's service string. Best for importers who prioritise predictability over transit speed. |
Maersk (Gemini Alliance) | 70.8% ★ Strong | Returning to Suez routing on select services- monitor for mid-voyage routing changes. Strong direct coverage to Durban and Cape Town. Well-suited to volume importers. |
Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM / COSCO / Evergreen / OOCL) | ~60–65% Variable | Largest capacity on Asia–SA trades. CMA CGM most active on Suez routing- higher risk of schedule changes mid-voyage in Q2 2026. Competitive rates available but monitor blank sailings closely. |
Premier Alliance (ONE / HMM / Yang Ming) | ~60–65% Mid-tier | Solid option on Asia–Durban lanes. Less aggressive on Suez return means more schedule stability near-term. Good for mid-volume importers wanting consistent Cape routing. |
MSC (independent) | ~65% Improving | Largest fleet globally, operating independently. Strong direct call coverage to Durban and Cape Town. Competitive on rates. Good for high-volume importers who can negotiate block-space agreements. |
Navigating Global Disruption with Confidence
This season continues to be a highly dynamic period for South African trade. SCT Supply Chain Solutions supports clients through this complexity with end-to-end logistics management, from customs clearance to carrier coordination and real-time market insights. Our digital platform, Scout, reflects our ongoing investment in smarter, more connected supply chain technology. It is designed to provide greater visibility, improved tracking, and a more seamless experience, making day-to-day shipment management simpler and more efficient. Scout delivers real-time performance insights, along with tools such as a market share module for analyzing trade flows and a cash flow forecasting feature to support better planning of payments and working capital. In this environment, a focused supply chain review can help unlock efficiencies and reduce risk. Contact our team- we are here to help you plan with confidence.
Freight News
We understand the importance of staying up to date with the latest trends, challenges, and advancements in our industry and we wish to highlight just a few articles which you might find of interest.
Transnet port execs gather for industry brainstorm
Sources & References
Seatrade Maritime / Loadstar / Freight News / GoComet / Maersk / Openpr / Transnet / WeFreight / MSC / AfricaPorts / Container Statistics+News / Flexport / BusinessTech/ SACO / Hellenic Shipping / Worldcargonews/ Maritime Executive / GCaptain/ Linerlytica / Sea Intelligence / Splash247 / Freight Waves / Xeneta / Drewry / Engineering news / African Mining / iOL / Hapag Lloyd / Reuters / Freshplaza