Global Logistics Lens - September

Sep 1

12 min read

Global supply chains entered August with cautious optimism, but quickly shifted back into volatility. Red Sea security risks, severe weather across Asia, rising freight rates and growing port congestion once again placed pressure on already stretched trade routes. For South African businesses, the disruption was felt both globally and at home. Durban Gateway Terminal’s transition to the NAVIS N4 operating system triggered severe operational constraints, while successive typhoons disrupted major Asian ports. At the same time, Red Sea security concerns kept Suez services cautious, and the Panama Canal moved towards tighter operating conditions. The common thread is clear: less spare capacity, greater uncertainty and less room for delays to be absorbed.

As we enter Q4, the priority is therefore no longer simply securing the lowest freight rate. It is securing realistic transit times, sufficient capacity and the contingency needed when delays can impact production schedules, stock availability or export commitments.

Key Highlights:

Durban remains the biggest local operational risk. DGT's NAVIS N4 transition triggered severe delays and landside congestion. Recovery has started, but the backlog is not yet fully cleared.
Asian congestion reached exceptional levels. Typhoon Dolphin, followed by Typhoon Saudel, disrupted Shanghai and Ningbo and tied up millions of TEUs.
Red Sea/Suez is reopening selectively — but cautiously. Some carriers have reinstated limited Suez services, while contingency routing via the Cape remains important.
Global container congestion remains extremely high. More than 4.3 million TEU was waiting to berth in late August; this eased to around 3.9 million TEU by the start of September, but remains well above normal levels.
Freight rates have stopped their earlier decline. Drewry's World Container Index reached $4600/40ft in mid-August before easing slightly at month-end.
Panama Canal restrictions are returning to the spotlight. Reduced water availability is affecting draft limits and future booking capacity.
South African exporters face continued US tariff pressure. The 12.5% Section 301 tariff remains applicable to affected South African exports.
Air freight remains resilient. Global air-cargo demand grew 3.9% year-on-year in July, although fuel and capacity remain cost considerations.
South African customs changes continue. August brought further tariff amendments and clarification around retrospective certificates of origin under the China zero-tariff arrangement.

South African Trade

South Africa enters the final quarter of 2026 with a stronger underlying performance base for ports and rail than a year ago, but August demonstrated how quickly improvements can be overshadowed by operational disruption. Durban Gateway Terminal's transition to a new terminal operating system was the single biggest operational event of the month, while Transnet continued to build the financing base for a broader rail and port modernisation program. Inland, the Beitbridge story that dominated late July did not resolve cleanly. Congestion eased, then showed signs of returning, reinforcing that border performance remains as important as port throughput.

Port Operations & DGT/Navis N4 Crisis

Durban Gateway Terminal (DGT) went live with its new NAVIS N4 Terminal Operating System on 15 August, following registration and training for transporters, shipping lines and other users. A fuel neutrality charge linked to the new system also took effect from 5 August. The changeover was not as smooth as expected and, combined with equipment, yard and coordination constraints, severely restricted cargo movement through the second half of August. By 24 August, service providers were reporting vessel waiting times of 8–12 days, stack occupancy approaching 85% and limited truck booking availability. Cargo dwell times increased, particularly for reefer exports, while some carriers took emergency measures such as omitting regional calls like Port Louis to prevent delays from spreading further across their networks. Importers and exporters were consequently exposed to additional storage, demurrage and other delay-related costs.

The South African Association of Freight Forwarders (SAAFF) declared the situation a crisis and escalated the matter to the Presidency. Industry has called for urgent improvements to booking capacity, equipment availability, container evacuation, rail integration and operational communication, as well as protection for businesses facing costs caused by delays outside their control. There are, however, signs of improvement. By 27 August, reported DGT stack occupancy had fallen from 89.2% to 73.8%, while road-import containers on hand declined from 6,171 to 5,750. DGT's focus has shifted towards clearing the accumulated backlog and restoring normal cargo flow. The improvement is positive, but the operational picture remains uneven, particularly for reefer cargo and vessels still waiting to berth.

Other Durban terminals are absorbing diverted cargo, while Cape Town, Ngqura and Port Elizabeth continued to meet or exceed their weekly container targets. Transnet and shipping lines are also adjusting vessel schedules and rotations to create additional operating capacity.

What this means: For Durban cargo, scheduled ETAs should still be treated as indicative rather than guaranteed. Importers should allow additional time between vessel arrival and delivery, while exporters should build flexibility around stack dates, equipment availability and vessel cut-offs. The current situation is a recovery phase, not a return to normal.

South African Port Performance Snapshot:

Port	Current Status	Outlook
Durban	Continued strong throughput; Transnet reports one of its best operational weeks in over a decade during August. National port throughput averaged ~12,062 TEUs/day for the week of 17-23 August.	Positive at a national level, though DGT-specific recovery remains the key near-term watch point.
Durban Gateway Terminal	DGT reports the system itself is now stable, with focus shifted to backlog clearance. Vessel anchorage/berth times still averaged 115-116 hours over the week.	Cautiously improving; reefer capacity and vessel queue remain the key pressure points
Cape Town	Winter wind disruption continues, offset by expanded stevedoring and rail measures ahead of peak citrus volumes.	Improving into spring, but weather-dependent windows remain the main constraint.
Coega (Ngqura)	Providing auxiliary labour support to Cape Town; berthing schedules otherwise steady.	Continue allowing flexibility for collections and deliveries.

Transnet Investment & Network Recovery

Beyond the immediate DGT crisis, Transnet's longer-term recovery program continues to attract investment. Government is pursuing approximately $2.2 billion in additional multilateral financing for freight rail and port modernisation, building on the $1.5 billion World Bank Development Policy Loan approved in July and R13 billion already released through the Budget Facility for Infrastructure. In the Western Cape, Transnet is also increasing labour resources at Cape Town Container Terminal during the citrus season and scaling rail throughput from the Belcon back-of-port facility to as many as five concurrent trains, helping reduce truck congestion and support higher export volumes.

Inland Logistics & Rail

Beitbridge congestion eased in August but remains a risk. After queues reached around 20km in late July, crossing times improved following engagement between South African and Zimbabwean authorities. By late August, however, delays were still significant, with southbound queue times averaging around 25 hours. Traffic is also shifting to alternative border posts such as Groblersbrug/Martins Drift, creating additional pressure at crossings not designed for higher volumes. For businesses moving cargo through the SADC region, the lesson remains the same: border performance can change quickly and alternative routing should be considered where timing is critical. Border delays are no longer simply a transport issue, they can affect production schedules, inventory planning and delivery commitments.

Jet Fuel Supply Risk

South Africa is also monitoring a developing jet-fuel supply risk following disruption at Sasol's Natref refinery and tighter international supply linked to earlier Strait of Hormuz disruption. There is no immediate fuel shortage, but airlines have introduced contingency measures, including sourcing alternative fuel and tankering. Businesses using air freight should monitor the situation as it could affect airline schedules and operating costs if supply pressure continues into September.

Compliance & Customs

Customs and trade policy remain important cost and compliance considerations as we move into the final quarter.

China Zero-Tariff Preference: The China zero-tariff arrangement remains available for qualifying South African exports to China until 30 April 2028, subject to the relevant origin requirements. An important August clarification from SARS confirmed that qualifying certificates of origin may, under specified circumstances, be issued retrospectively within one year of shipment. This provides additional flexibility where certificates were unavailable or could not be issued at the time of shipment. For exporters: make sure origin documentation is addressed before shipment rather than relying on retrospective correction.

Anti-Dumping & Tariff Changes: SARS published further August tariff amendments, including provisional anti-dumping duties on certain flat-rolled steel products originating from China and an increase in the customs duty on specified sugar products effective 28 August. For importers: tariff classification and country of origin should be checked before shipment, particularly where goods may fall under trade-remedy measures.

US Tariffs: South African exports to the US remain subject to the 12.5% Section 301 tariff introduced on 24 July, with specified exemptions. The measure relates to the US investigation into forced-labour import prohibitions.

AGOA also remains a Q4 watch point, with the current program scheduled to run until 31 December 2026. For exporters, the combination of tariff exposure and uncertainty around preferential market access makes final-quarter US shipments particularly important to review

Global Trade

August changed the global shipping outlook. Red Sea security risks increased again, reversing some of the cautious optimism around a return to the Suez Canal seen in July. A few carriers, including Maersk, CMA CGM, Cosco and MSC, have tested limited Red Sea transits, but most major carriers continue to avoid the route. For South African cargo, the Cape of Good Hope remains an important planning baseline, while any wider return to Suez could gradually shorten transit times and release vessel capacity. The key Q4 risk is therefore volatility: schedules and transit times could change as carriers balance security, congestion and commercial pressures.

At the same time, Asia experienced significant port disruption. Typhoon Dolphin forced Shanghai and Ningbo to close for several days, creating vessel backlogs and disrupting road, rail and barge movements. A second storm, Typhoon Saudel, caused further precautionary closures towards the end of August. Shanghai remains particularly congested, while carriers are adjusting schedules and port rotations to manage the backlog. Global vessel congestion has consequently reached record levels, with more than 4.3 million TEU waiting to berth worldwide by late August.

What this means for South African shippers

The combination of Red Sea uncertainty, Asian port congestion and weather disruption means Q4 transit times remain difficult to predict. Businesses sourcing from Asia should allow additional buffer into their supply chains, particularly for cargo moving through Shanghai and Ningbo, and should not rely solely on scheduled vessel ETAs. For South African exporters, the same congestion can affect equipment availability, vessel schedules and connections, while any change in Red Sea routing could quickly alter transit times and available capacity. Early bookings, flexible routing and close monitoring of carrier schedules will remain important through the final quarter.

Global Port Performance Snapshot:

Region	Port	Role for SA Trade	Status	Current Watch
China	Shanghai	Major import origin; SA's largest trading partner	🔴 Elevated	5–10 day vessel waits following Typhoon Dolphin, with further disruption from Typhoon Saudel.
China	Ningbo-Zhoushan	Major import origin & regional transhipment hub	🔴 Elevated	3–5 day waits; empty-container operations also disrupted by Typhoon Saudel.
China	Qingdao	Import origin	🟠 Watch	Vessel waits of around 1–2 days.
China	Shenzhen / Guangzhou	Major import origin	🟠 Watch	Congestion beginning to spread south from the Yangtze River Delta backlog.
Singapore	Singapore	Primary Asia–SA transhipment hub	🟠 Watch	Waiting times around 2 days due to vessel bunching from the China backlog. Transhipment delay on average 8-15 days
Malaysia	Port Klang / Tanjung Pelepas	Secondary Asia–SA transhipment hub	🟢 Normal	Waiting times around 1–2 days; only minor berth congestion reported.
Sri Lanka	Colombo	Key Indian Ocean transhipment hub	🟠 Watch	Around 2 days waiting; still elevated but well below earlier 2026 peaks.
India	Nhava Sheva & Mundra	Growing direct import origins	🟠 Watch	Around 1-3 days waiting; yard and landside constraints remain.
UAE	Jebel Ali	Middle East/India–SA transhipment hub	🔴 Elevated	H1 throughput fell sharply following Strait of Hormuz disruption; global ranking dropped from 10th to 32nd.
Netherlands	Rotterdam	Major European import origin	🟠 Watch	Low Rhine water levels are adding pressure to inland cargo movements.
Germany	Hamburg / Wilhelmshaven / Bremerhaven	Major European import origins	🟠 Watch	August dockworker strikes caused temporary terminal closures and delays.
Belgium	Antwerp	European import origin	🟢 Normal	Operations stable with no significant delays reported.
Spain / Morocco	Algeciras & Tanger Med	Mediterranean Europe–Africa gateway	🟢 Normal	Waiting times around 1 day; conditions have improved significantly from earlier peaks.
Mauritius	Port Louis	Regional transhipment call on some Asia–SA services	🟡 Service Disrupted	Some carriers are omitting the call during schedule recovery; confirm routing directly with carriers.
Italy	Genoa & La Spezia	European import origins	🟡 Improving	Recovery underway following August's summer shutdowns.

Global Watch

Global logistics enters the final quarter with more uncertainty and less spare capacity. Several developments are worth watching closely as they could influence freight costs, transit times and vessel schedules for South African businesses.

Freight Rates

After easing through June and July, container freight rates moved higher again in August. Drewry's World Container Index reached around $4500 per 40ft container by mid-August, driven mainly by disruption in Asia and stronger Transpacific pricing. The important message for South African importers is that the market is no longer moving consistently lower. Congestion, blank sailings, weather disruption and geopolitical risk are giving carriers greater pricing leverage. Early bookings and firm rate validity will become increasingly important where cargo is time-sensitive.

Panama Canal & Europe

The latest Panama Canal Authority measures reduce available booking capacity from September, while draft restrictions have been adjusted in response to below-expected rainfall and water levels. The 14.63m maximum draft is now scheduled from 2 September, while the further 14.48m restriction has been postponed to 1 October. For South African cargo, the direct impact is limited to specific trade lanes, but the wider effect can be felt through vessel capacity, surcharges and global network adjustments.

European logistics are facing a combination of port and inland constraints. Labour disruption at German ports in August added pressure to already stretched schedules, while low Rhine water levels continue to affect inland barge movements. The risk for South African importers is that delays originating in Asia can arrive at European hubs at the same time as local European constraints, extending the overall transit impact.

Fuel & Surcharges

Middle East uncertainty is also feeding into freight costs, with some carriers introducing Emergency Fuel Surcharges. For South African shippers, this means freight quotations may become more volatile even where the underlying ocean freight rate has not changed significantly.

Air Freight

Air cargo remains a viable alternative for urgent shipments, but it is not immune to wider supply-chain pressures. IATA's latest July figures showed global air-cargo demand up 3.9% year-on-year, with capacity increasing 1.7%. South Africa is also monitoring jet-fuel supply following the Natref disruption. Sasol has implemented measures intended to maintain supply through September, while ACSA has confirmed that airport fuel availability remains stable. For urgent cargo, air freight remains an option, but fuel-related costs and available capacity should be checked before switching modes.

What to Watch in Q4

For South African importers and exporters, the focus for the final quarter is shifting from individual disruptions to the wider market trends that could influence freight costs, capacity, transit times and supply-chain planning:

Freight rates & carrier capacity: After easing earlier in the year, rates have turned higher again. Watch for further blank sailings, capacity adjustments and general rate increases as carriers respond to congestion and tighter vessel availability.
Asia–South Africa capacity: Congestion in Shanghai and Ningbo is creating vessel bunching, schedule changes and equipment pressure. Even as ports recover, the knock-on effect could continue to affect September sailings and available connections into South Africa.
Suez vs Cape routing: Any meaningful return of services through the Suez Canal could change transit times, vessel availability and freight pricing.
Equipment availability: Port congestion does not only delay vessels. Empty-container imbalances and repositioning delays can affect the availability of equipment at origin, particularly in high-volume Asian markets.
Transhipment reliability: Hubs such as Singapore, Colombo and Port Klang remain important to South African trade. Increased vessel bunching and schedule disruption at major Asian ports could result in longer or less predictable transhipment connections.
Fuel & surcharges: Geopolitical developments, jet-fuel supply concerns and higher bunker costs could continue feeding through into emergency fuel, bunker and other carrier surcharges. Freight quotations should therefore be checked for validity periods and surcharge exposure.
European inland capacity: Low Rhine water levels and ongoing European port pressures could create additional delays once Asian congestion feeds into European gateways, particularly for cargo moving inland by barge or rail.
Trade policy: US tariff developments, AGOA uncertainty and further anti-dumping or tariff measures remain important for South African exporters and importers. Q4 shipments should be reviewed against the latest duty and market-access requirements.

SCT Logistics Intelligence View

August reinforced one important lesson: logistics disruption is no longer isolated to one port, border or trade route. SCT continues to monitor these interconnected risks through Scout, helping clients identify potential delays earlier and make informed decisions before disruption reaches the delivery point.

Ready to see what others miss? Discover Scout by contacting SCT Supply Chain Solutions today.

Freight News

The following developments were among the most significant stories influencing global freight, supply chain performance and trade flows:

🚨 Market Disruptors

📈 Market Trends

🌍 South African Logistics

Sources & References

AfricaPorts/ African Mining/ BusinessTech/ Container Statistics+News/ Drewry/ DTIC/ Engineering News/ Flexport/ FreshPlaza/ Freight News/ FreightWaves/ GCaptain/ GoComet/ Hapag-Lloyd/ ICTSI/ iOL/ Linerlytica/ Loadstar/ Maersk/ Maritime Executive/ MSC/ Reuters/ SACO/ SAAFF/ Sea Advantage/ Sea Intelligence/ Seatrade Maritime/Transnet/ WeFreight / World Bank Container Port Performance Index / WorldCargo News / Xeneta